That the 2029 election could result in a hung parliament that sees power being shared by a coalition of progressive elements should not yet be ruled out, especially given the huge uncertainties around the UK’s current political environment.
Much will depend on Starmer. If he survives as prime minister for the next year and Labour continues to flounder in the polls or performs poorly at the English local elections and the Scottish and Welsh national elections next May, then there may well be more than a few defections to Corbyn and Sultana.
Besides the overall political impact of this, a new left-wing party representing 20 or so MPs at Westminster would overshadow Nigel Farage’s right-wing Reform Party, which is already benefiting from the UK’s political malaise and has a comfortable lead over Labour, at least in England, according to recent polls.
If, on the other hand, Starmer goes, then the political complexion of the incoming Labour leadership will be key to what happens next. If it is in the Starmer mould, little will change. But in the very unlikely event that a more leftist regime takes over, we really will move into uncertain political times.
In the short term, though, the stance of the new party is more likely to frame the immediate future of British politics.
While Corbyn has long promoted grassroots democracy, it is easy enough to get an idea of his party’s policy focuses from the issues covered in the launch statement on its website. These include a need to redistribute wealth in the UK, invest in a council-house building programme, nationalise the energy, water, rail and mail sectors, and support Palestine.
While these are all highly important causes, Reform’s current success in the polls means the new Corbyn/Sultana party should first prioritise three other issues mentioned in its statement to win support.
The first is migration, which Reform is determined to keep as its lead issue, even at the risk of being a one-trick pony. Critics see much of its campaigning as using scare tactics and straightforward racism, but it does get support. Even so, a new left-wing party highlighting Britain’s ageing population and the positive need for inward migration to strengthen the workforce could refocus the debate on the idea that we need more, not less, migration.
